2025-Q4 Per Diem and Pay Insights Report: What Rising Wages Despite Falling Demand Means
12/02/2025
Data analysis based on Q3 2025 (July-September) from the RoadDogJobs Q4 2025 Per Diem & Pay Insights Report. Some September 2025 data unavailable due to government shutdown delays.
What's Inside
- Why the Q3 2025 numbers look contradictory (and what's actually happening)
- Current labor market tightness benchmarks
- Pay rates by trade with percentile breakdowns
- Regional wage and per diem variation
- Defensible assumptions for 2026 budgets
The Contradiction That Isn't
You're building labor estimates for a Q1 bid. You pull last quarter's rates, add your escalation factor, and pause.
The Q3 2025 numbers:
- Demand: down 0.6%
- Supply: up 0.5%
- Wages: up 5.7%
Supply and demand don't work that way. When you need to decide whether to sharpen your pencil on labor or build in cushion, contradictory signals don't help.
Here's what actually happened: Q3 2025 didn't break economics. The market shifted from rapid tightening to sustained tightness. If you're using 2023 or 2024 assumptions, your numbers miss the mark.
TL;DR: The market isn't contradicting itself. Growth slowed, but conditions stabilized at historically tight levels. Wages keep climbing because the underlying shortage persists.
Why Wages Rose Despite Softer Demand
The planning question: How do you set labor escalation when market signals conflict?
The confusion comes from watching direction instead of position.
Labor demand dropped year-over-year—but Q3 2025 still ranked as the second-highest demand quarter for any Q3 on record, per RoadDogJobs' BLS analysis. Demand didn't collapse. Growth decelerated from aggressive to moderate.
Supply grew 0.5%, but that growth rate flattened.
The shortage metric that matters:
RoadDogJobs tracks Total Available Construction Labor (TACL)—the workers who would remain after employers filled every open position.
- Shortage threshold: Below 100,000
- August 2025 actual: 99,000
Not enough people exist to fill the jobs.
Years of 300,000+ monthly openings created structural wage pressure. That pressure doesn't vanish because demand growth moderated. Workers hold options. Rates reflect that leverage.
Key Point: Don't confuse slowing growth with softening. The market stabilized at a high-pressure level—it didn't correct downward.
How Tight Is the Market? The Q3 2025 Benchmarks
The workforce question: How constrained is the labor pool?
More constrained than ever.
Three record-setting metrics from Q3 2025:
| Metric | Q3 2025 Value | Context |
|---|
| Employment | 25.449 million | All-time quarterly record |
| Unemployment | 3.47% | Lowest Q3 on record |
| Open jobs | Second-highest Q3 ever | Despite 11.7% YoY decline |
What 3.47% unemployment means:
Virtually everyone who wants construction work already has it. Your candidate pool doesn't consist of people between jobs—it consists of people working someone else's project.
Additional context:
July outpaced August for monthly employment—the first time that's happened since 2009. Open positions declined for six consecutive quarters but remain at historically elevated levels.
AGC's annual workforce surveys have documented contractor concerns about labor availability for years. Q3 2025 data confirms those concerns reflect structural reality, not perception.
Planning Implication: Build schedules assuming current staffing difficulty persists. The data doesn't support betting on a loosening market.
Peak, Plateau, or Turning Point?
The strategy question: Does this mark the top of a cycle or the new baseline?
The data points toward plateau.
Signs of stabilization:
- Supply growth flattening near historic highs
- Demand growth decelerating toward zero
- Seasonal swings dampening compared to previous years
The volatility caveat:
Month-to-month swings remain significant:
- July 2025 open jobs: +31% vs. prior year
- August 2025 open jobs: -43% vs. prior year
Project-driven surges cause these swings, not trend reversals.
Historical comparison:
The last Q3 demand decline before 2025 (excluding 2020) occurred in 2010, during post-recession recovery. That market struggled. This one doesn't—activity hovers near all-time highs.
The market matured. It didn't contract.
Planning Implication: Build 2026 workforce strategy assuming current conditions continue. Waiting for improvement doesn't qualify as a strategy the data supports.
With market direction established, the next question becomes tactical: what rates does this market demand?
Q3 2025 Pay Rates by Trade
The estimating question: What does the market pay?
All data below comes from RoadDogJobs' Q3 2025 platform job postings.
Overall Market
- Average hourly rate: $33.84
- Year-over-year change: +5.3%
- Trades with increases: 66%
High-Demand Trades: Detailed Breakdown
| Trade | 25th %ile | Average | 75th %ile | Max |
|---|
| Electrician | $32.00 | $39.32 | $45.00 | $100.00 |
| Pipefitter | $30.00 | $34.95 | $38.00 | $88.00 |
| Instrument Tech | $29.75 | $37.05 | $45.75 | $52.00 |
| Superintendent | $39.00 | $48.17 | $53.50 | $90.00 |
| Crane Operator | $30.00 | $35.75 | $40.00 | $74.00 |
| Millwright | $30.00 | $33.39 | $35.00 | $88.00 |
| Welder | $25.00 | $30.91 | $35.00 | $68.00 |
Per Diem Rates
| Role | Average Daily |
|---|
| All trades | $119.79 |
| Electrician | $120.49 |
| Pipefitter | $124.58 |
| Shipfitter | $167.92 |
| Superintendent | $121.02 |
Why ranges matter:
Electrician rates span $32.00-$100.00—a 3x variation that specialization and location drive. A mid-range assumption can miss by 50% for your specific situation.
Data Note: These figures reflect travel/per diem construction work on RoadDogJobs. Union scale rates may differ, but this data reveals open-shop market pricing for similar work.
Planning Implication: Benchmark your current assumptions against the 50th percentile for relevant trades. Fall below that line, and you'll either struggle to staff or absorb margin hits when you pay market rate to fill positions.
Regional Pay Variation
The multi-market question: How much does geography affect costs?
Enough to swing your estimate.
Hourly Rates by Region
| Region | Average Hourly | vs. Lowest |
|---|
| West | $37.18 | +15.8% |
| Midwest | $35.02 | +9.0% |
| Rocky Mountains | $34.65 | +7.9% |
| Southwest | $32.70 | +1.8% |
| Northeast | $32.53 | +1.3% |
| Southeast | $32.12 | baseline |
Per Diem by Region
| Region | Average Daily | vs. Lowest |
|---|
| West | $139.81 | +31.4% |
| Northeast | $133.39 | +25.3% |
| Southeast | $121.24 | +13.9% |
| Midwest | $120.32 | +13.1% |
| Rocky Mountains | $113.68 | +6.8% |
| Southwest | $106.42 | baseline |
The Math on a Real Project
Scenario: 100-person crew, 90 days
Per diem cost difference (West vs. Southwest):
- Daily spread: $33.39
- Total variance: $300,510
Project location alone creates that gap—same crew, same duration, different geography.
What drives the variation:
- West: California prevailing wage, high cost of living, concentrated project activity
- Northeast: Urban costs push per diem higher despite lower base wages
- Southwest: Lower cost markets reduce wage pressure
Planning Implication: National labor rate assumptions create risk in both directions. Verify your estimating templates reflect regional reality for each project location.
2026 Budget Assumptions
The leadership question: What numbers hold up to scrutiny?
Recommended Assumptions Based on Q3 2025 Data
Wage Escalation: 5-6%
| Factor | Data Point |
|---|
| Q3 2025 actual YoY growth | 5.3% |
| Unemployment (structural tightness indicator) | 3.47% |
| TACL (shortage indicator) | 99,000 |
Building in less than 5% requires a thesis explaining why conditions improve. Current data doesn't support that thesis.
Per Diem: Budget by Location
- Regional spread reaches $33/day
- Project-level assumptions demand geographic specificity
- Blended national averages introduce variance risk
Recruiting Timeline: No Improvement Expected
Key constraints remain unchanged:
- Record employment: 25.449M
- Historic low unemployment: 3.47%
- Elevated demand: Second-highest Q3 ever
The Predictability Advantage
Plateau conditions deliver more stability than rapid change. Unlike 2021-2023, your escalation factors stand a better chance of holding through project duration.
When Leadership Asks: "Q3 2025 delivered 5.3% wage growth, structural conditions remain unchanged per RoadDogJobs/BLS analysis. The 5-6% assumption rests on current data."
Quick Reference: Key Numbers
| Metric | Q3 2025 Value | Source |
|---|
| Average hourly rate | $33.84 | RDJ platform data |
| YoY wage growth | 5.3% | RDJ platform data |
| Construction employment | 25.449M | RDJ/BLS analysis |
| Unemployment rate | 3.47% | RDJ/BLS analysis |
| TACL (shortage indicator) | 99,000 | RDJ/BLS analysis |
| Highest regional rate | $37.18 (West) | RDJ platform data |
| Highest per diem | $139.81 (West) | RDJ platform data |
| Regional hourly spread | 15.8% | RDJ platform data |
Getting Project-Specific Data
The full Q4 2025 Per Diem & Pay Insights report delivers:
- 35+ trades with pay ranges (25th, 50th, 75th percentile, max)
- Per diem by craft and region
- 25-year TACL trends
- Historical employment and unemployment data
- Seven regional breakdowns
For project-specific rates—pipefitters in Houston, electricians in Phoenix—RoadDogJobs handles custom requests.
Design Note: Consider adding a TACL trend chart (source: full report, page 6) to visually reinforce the "plateau, not peak" narrative.
Summary: What to Build Into Your Plans
The market story: Conditions stabilized at historically tight levels. The shortage persists. Wages climbed 5.3% year-over-year.
For bids and budgets:
| Element | Assumption | Rationale |
|---|
| Wage escalation | 5-6% annually | Q3 2025 actual: 5.3%, no deceleration signal |
| Regional adjustment | Up to 15.8% | West to Southeast spread |
| Per diem variance | Up to $33/day | West to Southwest spread |
| Market conditions | Current tightness through 2026 | Plateau at elevated levels |
Get the Full Report: 35+ Trades, 7 Regions, Complete Pay Data
Need location-specific rates for an active bid? Request custom data at roaddogjobs.com/page/pay-rate-request